Seismic hazard of the western Makran subduction zone: Insight from mechanical modelling and inferred frictional properties

Western Makran is one of the few subduction zones left with a largely unconstrained seismogenic potential. According to sparse GPS stations, accumulating some strain be released during future earthquakes. To enhance seismic hazard assessment, we here propose study finite deformation western accretionary wedge. Mechanical modelling used retrieve spatial variations frictional properties megathrust, and discuss its do so, first build structural map along Iranian part Oman Sea investigate three N-S profiles. The profiles are characterized by long imbricated thrust zone that takes place at front A diapiric shallow origin lies in between shore. Along eastern shores, active listric normal faults seem root down megathrust. Eastern domains have developed similar deformation, faulting: on shore, thrusts ahead mud diapirs, frontal thrusts. On contrary, no identified central domain, where seamount entering into subduction. Two mechanical analyses performed We apply critical taper theory constrain pore fluid pressure then limit analysis two selected profile, transition from very low extremely friction required activate large coastal fault (μdeepeff = 0.01-0.06, μmiddleeff 0.003-0.012). propagate front, an increase necessary (μfronteff 0.017-0.031). method could not applied incomplete profile. However, since same transitions expected. Central domain also effective friction; but, absence does allow evidence any transition. Since dynamic coefficients significantly lower than frictions slow slip rate, region might reveal location asperity. difference strike would thus existence different asperities, second domain. earthquake occurred for, least, last 1000 years, event magnitude may Makran, particular